Live Nickel Price Today

Section A

Nickel Price Today — LME, NPI, Ferronickel & Sulphate

LME nickel is the global Class 1 benchmark. NPI and ferronickel are Class 2 products trading at a discount. Nickel sulphate is the battery-grade chemical. All four prices move independently.

Nickel price chart and nickel price today — per pound, per tonne, per kg

LME nickel is $15,500 per metric tonne as of April 2026, equivalent to $7.03 per pound (lb) and $15.50 per kilogram (kg). The LME official settlement is published daily at approximately 17:00 London time. It is the Class 1 global benchmark price used in contracts worldwide.

The pre-squeeze fundamental peak was $28,400/t in February 2022 — a realistic reference for fair value analysis, unlike the $101,365 March 2022 spike which was a short squeeze, not a supply shortage signal. See price history for the full context.

Why LME nickel and NPI prices diverge

LME nickel (Class 1, ≥99.8% pure) and Chinese NPI (Class 2, 8–12% Ni content in a ferronickel alloy) serve different end markets and have different production costs. LME is produced primarily from sulphide ore at higher AISC; NPI is produced from cheap Indonesian laterite ore via RKEF blast furnaces at $7,000–$9,000/t AISC. The current $2,300/t Class 1 premium reflects the additional refining cost and the battery market's demand for high-purity Class 1 nickel sulphate. When battery demand expectations were highest (2022), this spread reached +$8,000/t.

Section C

LME Nickel Warehouse Stocks & Cancelled Warrants

LME registered inventory is the primary transparent signal of physical supply availability for Class 1 nickel. Unlike copper (which has three major exchange warehouses — LME, COMEX, SHFE), nickel's physical inventory is concentrated on the LME. Cancelled warrants signal metal is being drawn down and leaving the system.

Understanding LME nickel inventory — what the numbers mean

LME warehouse stocks measure nickel that has been delivered against LME contracts and is sitting in registered warehouses. They are a snapshot of available Class 1 supply — not total global inventory, which also includes off-warrant metal in private warehouses, producer stockpiles, and in-transit metal. Current LME stocks of 183,000 tonnes represent approximately 7–8 weeks of global Class 1 nickel consumption.

The stocks peaked at approximately 246,000 tonnes in mid-2023 as the post-short-squeeze settlement resolved and excess refined metal moved onto exchange. They have declined since, consistent with the gradual surplus narrowing trend. The 8-week declining trend is a bullish signal — physical demand is consistently drawing down inventory faster than supply is delivering new metal to warehouses.

Cancelled warrants: the most actionable weekly signal

Cancelled warrants are LME-registered metal that has been flagged for physical delivery and removal from the exchange system. When a buyer wants actual nickel (not just paper exposure), they cancel the warrant. A rising cancelled warrant ratio (currently 15.5% of registered stock) signals that physical consumers are taking delivery — the most direct evidence of real end-user demand. Watch this number weekly. A sustained rise above 20% in conjunction with declining total stocks is historically a strong precursor to LME price moves.

Section E

Nickel Supply by Country — Production Data

Global nickel mine production in 2024: Indonesia ~55%, Philippines ~9%, Russia ~7%, New Caledonia ~4%, Australia ~4%, Canada ~3%, Other ~18%. The concentration of supply in Indonesia dwarfs all other producing countries.

Russia (Norilsk Nickel): world's largest Class 1 producer

Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel, MCX: GMKN) in Russia is the world's largest producer of Class 1 refined nickel, producing approximately 200,000 tonnes of refined nickel per year from its sulphide operations in the Norilsk and Kola regions of northern Russia. Russian nickel has continued to trade globally despite 2022 sanctions — the US and EU sanctions specifically excluded nickel (and aluminium) from primary commodity restrictions. However, several Western stainless and battery companies have reduced Russian nickel purchases voluntarily, creating a price discount for Russian-origin metal on some exchanges. Russia also produces approximately 40% of global palladium — relevant context for platinum group metals investors.

Philippines: the 2nd largest producer with a different risk profile

The Philippines produces approximately 350,000 tonnes Ni content annually, primarily from laterite ore exported directly to China for NPI processing. Unlike Indonesia, the Philippines has not banned ore exports — making it the last major laterite ore export market. This creates a different risk profile: Philippines production is more exposed to Chinese NPI economics and Chinese demand, without Indonesia's downstream processing investment. The Philippines' Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) periodically reviews mining permits and environmental compliance — a source of policy risk. Several mines have been suspended on environmental grounds in previous years.

New Caledonia: high-cost operations in crisis

New Caledonia (a French territory) has historically been a significant nickel producer, but its operations have AISC of $14,000–$20,000/t — well above current prices for most operations. By 2025, three major operations (SLN/Société Le Nickel, Koniambo Nickel SAS, and Prony Resources) had suspended or reduced operations. Political unrest in 2024 (independence-related violence and mine blockades) compounded the economic pressure. The closures removed approximately 120–150kt of annual supply — the largest single country-level supply reduction of the current price cycle. New Caledonia's production is unlikely to return at scale unless LME prices recover sustainably above $18,000/t.

Section — Outlook

Nickel Price Forecast 2026–2028 — What Analysts Expect

The nickel price consensus reflects a market in surplus that is slowly normalising. The recovery is slower than most 2022-era forecasts projected — but the structural demand case remains intact for the medium term.

Consensus price forecasts by institution

The bull, base, and bear scenarios

The incentive price as the long-run anchor

The incentive price — the LME level needed to attract capital into new greenfield sulphide nickel development — is generally estimated at $22,000–$28,000/t. This is significantly above current prices. No rational company will invest $3–5 billion in a new Canadian sulphide mine at $15,500/t. As the market moves from surplus toward deficit, prices need to approach this level to incentivise the supply that will be needed in the 2030s when battery demand becomes a much larger share of total demand. The current price is therefore structurally unsustainable in a decade-long demand growth scenario — the question is timing of recovery, not direction.

Section — Companies

Major Nickel Producers — Norilsk, Vale, Tsingshan & Beyond

Six companies dominate global nickel supply. Understanding their cost positions, product types, and strategic postures explains much of the nickel market's structure and price dynamics.

The March 2022 short squeeze: what happened and why it matters

On March 7–8 2022, LME nickel prices spiked from approximately $29,000/t to $101,365/t in under 24 hours. The cause: Tsingshan Holdings had built an enormous short position on the LME (estimated 150,000–200,000 tonnes) as a hedge against its Indonesian production. When nickel prices rose sharply (initially on Russia-Ukraine supply concern), Tsingshan faced catastrophic margin calls. Its counterparties — primarily Western banks — pressed for settlement. The price spiral reflected forced covering, not physical supply shortage.

The LME's response was controversial: it halted the market and cancelled approximately $3.9 billion in trades executed during the spike. Multiple hedge funds (including AQR, Clifford Asness) publicly criticised the decision as a betrayal of market integrity — their valid long positions were cancelled after execution. The FCA (UK Financial Conduct Authority) conducted an investigation. The episode triggered multiple lawsuits against the LME. LME nickel volumes and open interest have not fully recovered to pre-squeeze levels, as institutional trust in the contract was damaged.

For investors, the lesson: the LME nickel contract is susceptible to position-concentration risk in ways that copper (which has three major exchange warehouses and a larger physical market) is not. The $101,365 price is not a fundamental reference — the pre-squeeze $28,400 and the cost structure analysis are more useful for fair-value thinking.

Section K

Nickel Price Driver Dashboard

Five variables explain the majority of near-term nickel price moves. The signal dashboard below shows current readings. Green = bullish for nickel price; amber = neutral; red = bearish.

Section L

Nickel Cost Curve — Production Costs by Ore Type & Processing Route

The nickel cost curve has three fundamentally different ore types and three processing routes, each with very different cost structures. Understanding where the marginal producer sits determines the floor price for nickel.

Why Indonesian RKEF NPI makes nickel floors different from lithium

In lithium, the marginal cost producer is Chinese lepidolite at ~$10,500–$11,000/t AISC — and with the LCE spot at $11,000, 30% of supply is already underwater. The self-correction mechanism is active. In nickel, the cheapest major supply source (Indonesian RKEF NPI) has AISC of only $7,000–$9,000/t — well below LME spot at $15,500. This means there is no Indonesian-level self-correction occurring. The surplus is not eroding because the dominant supply source is still profitable. The cost curve does not provide a floor near current prices — the floor is significantly lower if Indonesian production continues growing.

The ~23% below-cost figure — what it actually means

At $15,500/t LME, approximately 23% of global nickel supply is estimated to be operating below AISC — primarily New Caledonia laterite operations and some high-cost Canadian sulphide mines. New Caledonia nickel operations have already moved to care and maintenance. The Canadian sulphide operations are sustaining on the basis of future price recovery and sunk capital. This 23% is the supply overhang being removed — but it is small relative to the Indonesian supply growing at 5–10% annually on the other side of the ledger. The cost curve shows a floor at ~$7,000–$9,000/t (Indonesian RKEF cash cost) — significantly below current prices.